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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/21/2024

Phoenix Suns vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 43.4% of his 3-pointers while on the road this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among all players in the league.

The Pacers check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The matchup against Phoenix is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Phoenix Suns are on their home court, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 21st-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (1.9).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games on the road.

The Indiana Pacers are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from squaring off against the 9th-speediest pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith measures in the 99th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a whopping 3.3 fouls per game this year.

The Pacers rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 free throws per game (11th-fewest in the NBA) against the Suns, struggling to draw fouls.

Aaron Nesmith will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road generally reduces player performance for all stats.

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