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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/18/2024

Sacramento Kings vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The fastest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Pacers.

The Sacramento Kings have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games in their home city, which should increase opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

This year, their opposition has grabbed 9.4 offensive rebounds per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Sacramento Kings (lessening possessions that could otherwise bring about bonus opportunities for offense).

The matchup vs. the Kings may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing squads have attempted a measly 20.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Kings are on their home court (6th-least in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Over the last 20 games when they are on the road, the other team has scored 121.4 points per game (highest in the NBA) against the Kings, resulting in a good matchup for offensive effectiveness.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 8thworst in in the league with a mere 10.2 offensive boards per game this year.

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