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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/12/2024

Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 83rd percentile for three-pointers scored, compiling 2.1 per game this year.

This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SFs have shot 60.1% on threes (30th-best in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks, designating this as a strong matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year.

The Pacers are expected to see an increase in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the most up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Atlanta Hawks).

The Pacers check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (97th percentile).

This year, opposing teams have secured 11.5 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Hawks (maintaining possessions that can result in additional opportunities for offense).

The matchup vs. the Hawks may be a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.0 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (14th-least in the league).

Aaron Nesmith will likely suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all stat categories considering being on the road in this contest.

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