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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/10/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 59.5% of his field goals over the last 10 games at home, 8.2% higher than he's sunk overall this year while playing at home.

The Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The matchup vs. the Wizards is a good one; they have given up the 24th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SFs this year (15.7).

The Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the league when playing at home this year.

The Indiana Pacers will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from facing the most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Washington Wizards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith rates in the 91st percentile for personal fouls, putting up a colossal 2.8 fouls per game at home this year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 25 games, their opposition has brought down 13.0 offensive boards per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Washington Wizards (lengthening possessions that can bring about added chances for offense).

The matchup vs. the Wizards may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 0.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games (14th-least in the league).

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