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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/8/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 46.6% of his 3-point shots this year, putting him in the 95th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

As it relates to scoring, the Indiana Pacers's stellar 126.3 points per game comes in as the strongest in the NBA this year.

The matchup against Boston is a positive one for three-point attempts; when the Celtics are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.7).

The fastest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Pacers.

The Pacers will likely see a rise in opportunities in this game from competing against the 9th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Celtics).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 91st percentile for personal fouls, logging a whopping 2.9 fouls per game while on his home court this year.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and create additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 5thworst in in the NBA when playing at home with only 9.3 offensive boards per game this year.

The Boston Celtics have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.5) in the NBA to the other team over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 1.5 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, struggling to get to the foul line.

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