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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/5/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 67.7% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 15.9% higher than he's converted in all games this year while at home.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have shot 55.3% on shot attempts from the field (30th-best in the league) against the Hawks, branding this as a good matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the fastest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.

The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league this year, which ought to increase possessions for the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith registers in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 2.9 fouls per game while on his home court this year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 25 games, their opposition has grabbed 11.6 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks (maintaining possessions that can lead to bonus chances for offense).

Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the Hawks, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

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