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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/30/2023

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 3.0 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season.

The Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 48.0% on 3-pointers (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Knicks, identifying this as a favorable matchup.

The speediest pace offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers will likely see a rise in plays in this contest from competing against the 4th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the New York Knicks).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 3.1 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 96th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers rank 3rdworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with just 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

The matchup vs. New York may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Knicks are on the road (8th-least in the league).

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