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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/28/2023

Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 58.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 12.3% more than he's made from three in all games this season.

The Pacers have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pacers grade out 10thbest in in the NBA as the road team with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 29.0% more than he's converted overall this year.

This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 5.1 free throws per game (30th-most in the league) against the Bulls, easily managing to draw fouls.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (98th percentile).

The matchup vs. the Bulls is a tough one for three-point shots; opposing starting SFs have posted the 15th-lowest three percentage in the league this year (23.9%).

The Bulls have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Pacers.

Over the last 15 games when they are away from home, opposing squads have captured 11.7 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Chicago Bulls (maintaining possessions that can create further opportunities for offense).

In regard to getting to the foul line, the Indiana Pacers's unimpressive 19.2 free throws per game when playing on the road ranks 3rd-worst in the league over the last 5 games.

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