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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/26/2023

Houston Rockets vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 58.3% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 12.4% higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the year.

The Indiana Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.

The Rockets have played at the 5th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should raise opportunities for the Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 30.5% higher than he's put through the net overall this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith measures in the 98th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a colossal 3.4 fouls per game this year.

This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have shot 26.1% on threes (14th-weakest in the NBA) against the Rockets, marking this as a hard matchup.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games, the other team has snagged 13.8 offensive boards per game (most in the league) vs. the Rockets (retaining possessions that can generate bonus chances for offense).

Aaron Nesmith should suffer a drop-off in productivity in all facets of the game due to being on the road in this game.

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