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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/23/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 3.0 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from downtown overall this season.

The quickest pace home offense in the NBA this year has been the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers will likely see a rise in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 8th-fastest tempo away team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Magic).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Magic have allowed the least offensive boards per game (9.4) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith measures in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, registering a massive 2.8 fouls per game while playing at home this year.

In contrast to last season's 84.8% clip, Aaron Nesmith's foul-shot proficiency has dropped this season to 69.5%.

As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe in recent games: 5th-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games, averaging just 18.8 free throw attempts per game.

This matchup may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted a monstrous 26.1 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-most in the league).

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