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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/21/2023

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 57.5% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games, 6.2% more than he's sunk overall this year.

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 2.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted over the course of the season.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

On their home court, the Memphis Grizzlies have given up the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (97th percentile).

This matchup is a strong one for three-point shots; when the Memphis Grizzlies have the home court advantage, the other team has totaled the most three-point shots per game in the league against them this year (14.8).

The Pacers will likely see a decline in plays today from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic tempo home team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Memphis Grizzlies).

This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; opposing clubs have attempted a massive 27.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

Aaron Nesmith will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling tends to lower player production across the board.

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