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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/20/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted 2.4 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 more than he's converted overall this season.

The speediest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Pacers.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pacers rank 5thbest in in the league with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Aaron Nesmith will hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage usually increases player production across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith places in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, registering a colossal 3.0 fouls per game playing at home this year.

The Charlotte Hornets have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Indiana Pacers.

The Hornets have given up the most offensive boards per game (13.8) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has converted just 67.9% of his free throw attempts this season, quite a bit lower than his 84.8 mark last season.

As a team, the Pacers have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the charity stripe of late: 9th-worst in the league over the last 5 games, totaling just 20.8 free throw attempts per game.

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