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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/13/2023

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Compared to last year's 38.7% mark, Aaron Nesmith's field goal prowess has increased this year to 55.1%.

Compared to last year's 32.8% mark, Aaron Nesmith's 3-point effectiveness has increased this year to 44.0%.

The Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA away from home this year.

This matchup is a tough one for 3-pointers; when the Milwaukee Bucks have the home court advantage, opposing teams have posted the 10th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (35.2%).

The fastest tempo home team in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Relative to last season's 3.3 rate, Aaron Nesmith's personal fouls per game have increased this season to 3.9.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Playing at home, the Milwaukee Bucks have given up the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.5) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith will likely suffer a reduction in effectiveness for all stats considering being on the road in this game.

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