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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 12/2/2023

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made a whopping 44.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this season, significantly more than his 32.8 mark last season.

With respect to offense, the Indiana Pacers's superb 127.9 points per game when playing away from home ranks highest in the league this year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace in the league when playing at home this year.

The Pacers are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 9th-fastest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).

This year when they are playing at home, opposing squads have collected 9.6 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise spark extra opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith lands in the 96th percentile for personal fouls, posting a monstrous 3.3 fouls per game on the road this year.

This year when they are on their home court, opposing teams have shot 50.3% on field goal attempts (2nd-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, labeling this as a strong matchup.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA as the away team with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Compared to last year's 78.0% clip, Aaron Nesmith's foul-shot performance has declined this year to 56.0%.

Aaron Nesmith ought to suffer a reduction in efficiency in all facets of the game due to playing on the visting team in this game.

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