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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 11/30/2023

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-128/+104).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made an impressive 47.4% of his treys this year, a significant increase from his 32.8 mark last year.

In terms of offense, the Pacers's remarkable 127.6 points per game with the home court advantage settles in as the strongest in the league this year.

The fastest pace road offense in the NBA this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

This year when they are at home, opposing squads have secured 9.6 offensive boards per game (6th-fewest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (lessening possessions that could otherwise produce further chances for offense).

The matchup against the Heat is a challenging one for drawing fouls; opposing clubs have attempted a mere 19.6 foul shots per game this year (4th-least in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith ranks in the 92nd percentile for personal fouls, registering a whopping 3.1 fouls per game this year.

This year when they are at home, opposing teams have averaged 38.1% on 3-pointers (4th-best in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a favorable matchup.

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Pacers.

The Pacers check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

In contrast to last year's 78.0% rate, Aaron Nesmith's free-throw prowess has decreased this year to 45.0%.

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