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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 11/21/2023

Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last season's 3.8 mark, Aaron Nesmith's shot attempts from beyond the arc have increased this season to 6.3 per game.

The Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.

This year, opposing starting PFs have tallied 5.2 3-point attempts per game (21st-most in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks, branding this as a strong matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest tempo in the league when playing at home this year.

The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA on the road this year, which should increase plays for the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 2.9 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (88th percentile).

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 8thworst in in the NBA with just 9.3 offensive boards per game this year.

Away from home, the Hawks have allowed the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a measly 33.3% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly lower than his 78.0 rate last year.

The matchup vs. the Hawks is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.3 foul shots per game since the start of last season (14th-least in the league).

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