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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 11/19/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 32.8% rate, Aaron Nesmith's 3-point ability has increased this year to 49.9%.

The Pacers rank as the highest scoring offense in the league on the road this year.

The fastest pace visiting offense in the league this year has been the Pacers.

The Orlando Magic have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (8.9) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

This year when they are on the road, their opposition has attempted 21.7 foul shots per game (9th-fewest in the league) against the Magic, making it tough to draw fouls.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith places in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, logging a whopping 3.0 fouls per game away from home this year.

The Orlando Magic have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 9thworst in in the NBA away from their home court with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Relative to last year's 84.8% rate, Aaron Nesmith's free-throw prowess has diminished this year to 63.9%.

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