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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 11/6/2023

Indiana Pacers vs San Antonio Spurs

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

As it relates to offense, the Indiana Pacers's remarkable 123.3 points per game places 3rd-best in the NBA this year.

The 4th-speediest tempo offense in the league this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Spurs have played at the 7th-quickest tempo in the league on their home court this year, which ought to increase possessions for the Pacers.

Over the last 5 games when they are on their home court, their opposition has grabbed 8.8 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Spurs (lessening possessions that could otherwise generate additional opportunities for offense).

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a terrific 68.8% of his foul shot attempts this season, significantly more than his 89.2 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith rates in the 90th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a whopping 3.0 fouls per game away from home this year.

Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, opposing clubs have put up 123.0 points per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the San Antonio Spurs, marking this as a good matchup for offensive performance.

As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been poor at getting to the foul line in recent games: 7th-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games while on their home court, totaling a measly 18.8 foul shot attempts per game.

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