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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/5/2023

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a terrific 40.6% of his field goals this year, quite a bit more than his 33.2 rate last year.

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 2.8 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.9 higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season while at home.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 31.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games at home, 4.9 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year at home.

The matchup against the Knicks is a favorable one for three-point attempts; the other team's starting PFs have averaged the 29th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.8).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA while playing at home this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.3 personal fouls per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 1.1 fouls per game last season.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games while playing at home.

The Knicks have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games without the home court advantage, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Pacers.

The matchup vs. the Knicks may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.2 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (14th-least in the league).

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