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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 4/2/2023

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 2.2 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the season.

The matchup against the Cavaliers is a good one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PFs have averaged the 29th-most three-pointers per game in the league this year (1.9).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a terrific 1.6 free throws per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 0.4 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.3 personal fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 1.1 fouls per game last season.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 9th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA this year.

The Cavaliers have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Pacers.

The Cavaliers have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (14.0) in the league to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Evan Mobley is a challenging one for drawing fouls; when guarding fellow starting PFs this year, they have attempted just 3.0 foul shots per game (24th percentile).

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