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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/29/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted a whopping 40.1% of his field goals this year, significantly more than his 33.2 mark last year.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 2.5 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.7 more than he's sunk over the course of the season playing at home.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 34.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 7.5 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season at home.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games with the home court advantage.

The Bucks have played at the fastest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 3.3 personal fouls per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 1.1 fouls per game last season.

The matchup against the Bucks is a challenging one for shots from the field; opposing starting PFs have put up the 15th-lowest field goal rate in the NBA this year (41.5%).

The Bucks have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the NBA to the other team over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been poor at getting to the foul line in recent games: 9th-worst in the league over the last 25 games, tallying just 21.7 foul shot attempts per game.

The matchup against the Bucks is a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (15th-least in the league).

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