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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/22/2023

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 14.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.4 more than he's averaged overall this season.

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 2.4 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 7th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Raptors have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, quite a bit more than his 1.1 fouls per game last year.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 6th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA this year.

The matchup against Toronto is a tough one for three-pointers; when the Raptors have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the 12th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (27.0%).

The Raptors have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally worsens player production in all stat categories.

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