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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 3/2/2023

San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Spurs have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to boost possessions for the Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. San Antonio is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 3.3 foul shots per game this year when the Spurs have the home court advantage (22nd-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 33.7% of his field goal attempts while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 12th percentile out of all players in the league.

Aaron Nesmith has attempted 0.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 15 games, -1.2 less than he's attempted overall this year.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 3.1 minutes per game over the last 15 games, -5.8 lower than he's been on the court for in all games this year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 6th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while playing away from home this year.

The matchup against the Spurs is a challenging one for attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting PFs have tallied the 15th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (3.1).

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