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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/27/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a terrific 39.5% of his shot attempts from the field this season, a sizeable increase from his 33.2 rate last season.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 3.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.7 higher than he's made in all games this season while playing at home.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (which also provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games while on their home court.

The Pacers have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Bucks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.2 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 96th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.

The Bucks have allowed the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (12.7) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (which also eliminates additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Bucks is a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.8 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA).

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