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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/25/2023

Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-104/-122).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has converted a whopping 40.4% of his field goals this season, a significant increase from his 33.2 rate last season.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 92.9% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 12.7% more than he's made overall this year while playing away from home.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (which can also produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games.

The matchup vs. the Magic may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; opposing clubs have attempted a monstrous 22.8 free throws per game over the last 15 games (7th-most in the NBA).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (97th percentile).

The Magic have given up the 9th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (which will also lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.

The Pacers have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which should decrease plays for the Magic.

The matchup vs. the Magic is a difficult one for threes; at home, the other team's starting PFs have compiled the 3rd-lowest three percentage in the league this year (24.7%).

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