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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/21/2023

Phoenix Suns vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.3 more than he's put through the net in all games this season.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA while playing away from home this year in terms of shots from downtown.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league this year.

The matchup against the Suns is a favorable one for three-pointers; opposing teams have shot for the 8th-highest 3-point rate in the league since the start of last season (34.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has failed to make 3.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 more than he's failed to convert from 3-point range overall this year.

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (96th percentile).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 7th-least efficient shooting team in the league this year.

The Pacers have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Suns.

The matchup vs. the Suns is a difficult one; they have allowed the least points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs since the start of last season (13.4).

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