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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 1/20/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has attempted 3.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (which can also provide added chances for scoring and assists).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the league this year.

The Nuggets have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (which also produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has failed to convert 5.8 shot attempts from the field per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.4 more than he's missed over the course of the year while playing on the road.

Aaron Nesmith has tallied 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (96th percentile).

The matchup against the Nuggets is a hard one for scoring; opposing squads have shot for the 7th-lowest FG% in the NBA this year (48.1%).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the league this year.

The Pacers have played at the 10th-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease plays for the Nuggets.

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