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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots
Player Prop - 5/21/2024

Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk an impressive 41.6% of his 3-point shots this year, a significant increase from his 32.8 rate last year.

Aaron Nesmith has played 28.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 76th percentile.

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 5.8 3-point attempts per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, creating a positive matchup.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, and the Pacers grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 10.5 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (100th percentile).

The Indiana Pacers check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 10 games.

The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should decrease possessions for the Pacers.

Aaron Nesmith will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally worsens player production across the board.

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