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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots
Player Prop - 3/5/2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +154.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk a whopping 46.1% of his treys this year, a sizeable increase from his 32.8 rate last year.

The 2nd-fastest pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Pacers.

The Pacers will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 6th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).

Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Pacers rank 7thbest in in the league with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (99th percentile).

The Pacers check in as the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games as it relates to shot attempts from downtown.

The matchup vs. Dallas is a challenging one for threes; when the Dallas Mavericks are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 15th-least three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (0.8).

This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have brought down 11.8 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks (preserving possessions that can result in extra opportunities for offense).

Aaron Nesmith figures to see a decline in effectiveness for all stats considering playing away from home in this matchup.

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