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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots
Player Prop - 3/3/2024

San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 52.5% of his shots from downtown over the last 10 games on the road, 9.0% higher than he's made from 3-point range overall this year while on the road.

The 2nd-fastest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers are expected to see a rise in possessions today from competing against the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA this year (the San Antonio Spurs).

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pacers rank 6thbest in in the league while playing away from home with 11.2 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Over the last 10 games, opposing clubs have secured 8.6 offensive boards per game (3rd-lowest in the league) vs. the Spurs (losing possessions that could otherwise spark more chances for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has accumulated 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the league (99th percentile).

This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 27.4% on three-pointers (12th-weakest in the NBA) against the Spurs, resulting in a difficult matchup.

Aaron Nesmith will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally lowers stat production in all facets of the game.

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