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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots
Player Prop - 1/18/2023

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league while on the road this year as it relates to shots from downtown.

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year.

The Pacers have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Thunder.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has averaged 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-whistled players in the NBA (96th percentile).

The Thunder have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (which also reduces additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year when playing away from home (which also reduces additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Thunder is a hard one for 3-point attempts; while on their home court, opposing starting PFs have totaled the 6th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA since the start of last season (3.6).

Aaron Nesmith will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens player production in all stat categories.

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