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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Assists
Player Prop - 12/2/2023

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-210).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace in the league when playing at home this year.

The Pacers are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 9th-fastest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).

This year when they are playing at home, opposing squads have collected 9.6 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise spark extra opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith lands in the 96th percentile for personal fouls, posting a monstrous 3.3 fouls per game on the road this year.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA as the away team with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Aaron Nesmith ought to suffer a reduction in efficiency in all facets of the game due to playing on the visting team in this game.

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