Aaron Gordon Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/2/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 2, 2024

Updated Feb 3, 2024 2:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has compiled 2.6 offensive rebounds per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 95th percentile.
Aaron Gordon has tallied 30.9 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 80th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court, which should boost plays for the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Aaron Gordon figures to see a rise in productivity for all stats as a result of having the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's averaged in all games this year.
The 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Nuggets.
Over the last 25 games when they are playing at home, opposing teams have grabbed 11.4 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (lengthening possessions that can spark further opportunities for offense).

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