Aaron Gordon Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 2:08 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-134/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has tallied 2.6 offensive rebounds per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league by this standard: 95th percentile.
Aaron Gordon has averaged 31.2 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the fastest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Bucks).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 6thbest in in the league with 12.0 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Aaron Gordon will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally boosts player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

The most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Milwaukee Bucks have given up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

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