Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 10/23/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets · Oct 23, 2025

Updated Oct 24, 2025 12:53 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-260/+190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -240 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon places in the 95th percentile for three-point effectiveness with a great 41.4% rate since the start of last season.
Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Gordon rates in the 79th percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 30.3 minutes per game since the start of last season.
The matchup vs. Golden State is a good one for shot attempts from the field; when the Warriors are on their home court, opposing starting PFs have averaged the 2nd-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.8).
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 10th-best in in the NBA with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game since the start of last season.
Aaron Gordon has made 2.9 free throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 84th percentile among all players in the league.

Favors Under

In terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA since the start of last season has been the Nuggets.
This year when they are away from home, opposing starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (9th-fewest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, struggling to get to the charity stripe.
Aaron Gordon ought to see a decline in productivity across the board considering playing away from home in this matchup.

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