Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/18/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets · May 18, 2025

Updated May 18, 2025 7:33 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has converted an impressive 41.5% of his three-pointers this season, significantly more than his 26.9 mark last season.
Aaron Gordon has been on the court for 37.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 7.3 more than he's been on the court for overall this season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should boost possessions for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 4.5 foul shots per game (10th-highest in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

Relative to last season's 57.8% rate, Aaron Gordon's scoring effectiveness has been reduced this season to 51.4%.
In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The matchup against the Thunder is a challenging one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 8th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (46.3%).
The 10th-most sluggish tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Nuggets.
Aaron Gordon will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens stat production across the board.

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