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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 4/1/2025

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 3.0 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.2 higher than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year at home.

The 5th-fastest pace team in the league this year has been the Nuggets.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 8th-best in in the league with 11.7 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Aaron Gordon has made 2.4 free throws per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among all players in the league.

Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 6.0 free throws per game (6th-most in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, easily managing to get to the foul line.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the least aggressive offense in the league this year has been the Nuggets.

This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have compiled 14.5 points per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Timberwolves, branding this as a tough matchup for offensive efficiency.

The Timberwolves have played at the 8th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Denver Nuggets.

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