Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/23/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 23, 2025

Updated Mar 24, 2025 2:29 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+104/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has sunk 56.1% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 10.5% more than he's made from downtown over the course of the year.
The 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Nuggets.
The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Aaron Gordon has made 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 2.8 more than he's made over the course of the season.
Over the last 5 games when they are on the road, opposing starting PFs have attempted 7.6 free throws per game (most in the league) against the Rockets, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

The Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the league this year with respect to 3-point attempts.
The matchup against the Houston Rockets is a hard one for three-point shots; the other team's starting PFs have put up the lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (21.7%).
The Nuggets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from squaring off against the 9th-most sluggish tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Rockets).
Aaron Gordon will likely suffer a drop-off in performance in all stat categories due to being on the road in this matchup.

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