Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/9/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 9, 2025

Updated Mar 9, 2025 5:04 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has sunk 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's made from 3-point range in all games this year.
Aaron Gordon has played 32.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 more than he's played in all games this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-fastest tempo in the league this year.
The Nuggets will likely see a spike in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 3rd-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 8th-best in in the league without the home court advantage with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The matchup vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder is a difficult one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PFs have shot for the 8th-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (46.3%).
Aaron Gordon will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces player production for all stats.

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