Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 27, 2025

Updated Feb 28, 2025 3:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has sunk 58.2% of his treys over the last 10 games, 15.1% higher than he's converted from three in all games this season.
The matchup vs. the Bucks is a strong one for 3-pointers; the other team's starting PFs have totaled the 7th-most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (1.8).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league with the home court advantage this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Aaron Gordon has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 22.6% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season while playing on the road.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 8th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Bucks may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (least in the league).
Aaron Gordon should suffer a reduction in productivity across the board considering being on the road in this game.

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