Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 2/10/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 10, 2025

Updated Feb 11, 2025 3:34 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has sunk 40.4% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, ranking in the 90th percentile among all players in the league.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-quickest pace in the league over the last 25 games on their home court.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as the home team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Aaron Gordon will hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium generally raises stat production for all stats.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has sunk a mere 50.2% of his field goals this season, significantly lower than his 57.8 rate last season.
The Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year with respect to shot attempts from downtown.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 29.6% on threes (4th-worst in the NBA) against the Trail Blazers, identifying this as a tough matchup.
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Trail Blazers).
The matchup vs. Portland may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Trail Blazers are on the road (2nd-least in the NBA).

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