Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 2/5/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Feb 5, 2025

Updated Feb 6, 2025 2:59 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has converted 65.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 13.2% higher than he's converted from downtown overall this season on his home court.
The matchup vs. New Orleans is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the New Orleans Pelicans are on the road, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.4).
The Pelicans have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should lead to increased possessions for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Aaron Gordon has attempted and missed 0.6 foul shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 1.1 rate last season.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has been on the court for a measly 26.6 minutes per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 32.3 minutes per game last season.
With respect to three-point attempts, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The 9th-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Nuggets.

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