Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · Dec 23, 2024

Updated Dec 24, 2024 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has sunk 53.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 8.9% more than he's made from three in all games this season at home.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 8th-best in in the league while playing at home with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 11 games.
Aaron Gordon has successfully made 2.3 free throws per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 7.5 foul shots per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) against the Phoenix Suns, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The matchup against Phoenix is a challenging one for three-pointers; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have totaled the least treys per game in the NBA this year (0.9).
The Suns have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA while traveling this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Nuggets.

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