Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/19/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 19, 2024

Updated May 19, 2024 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has successfully made 7.0 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's sunk overall this year.
Aaron Gordon has sunk 57.0% of his treys over the last 5 games, 30.1% more than he's made over the course of the season.
Aaron Gordon has averaged 37.1 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.0 more than he's averaged overall this season.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-most efficient shooting team in the league while playing at home this year.
The matchup vs. Minnesota may be a good one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 6.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Minnesota Timberwolves are away from home (6th-most in the league).

Favors Under

This year, the other team's starting PFs have totaled 14.5 points per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, making this a hard matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games as the home team.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have been the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

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