Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/16/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · May 16, 2024

Updated May 17, 2024 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has sunk 65.9% of his field goals over the last 15 games on the road, 9.1% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season on the road.
Aaron Gordon has successfully made 47.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games, 20.4% more than he's made from downtown over the course of the year.
Aaron Gordon has averaged 37.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.3 higher than he's averaged overall this season.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create more chances for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 8th-best in the league while playing on the road with 11.2 offensive boards per game this year.
Aaron Gordon has attempted 5.0 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when playing on the road, 1.2 more than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road.

Favors Under

With respect to scoring, the Nuggets's unimpressive 111.4 points per game as the road team comes in as the 10th-lowest in the NBA this year.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 14.5 points per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, designating this as a difficult matchup for offensive productivity.
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Nuggets.
The matchup against Minnesota is a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Timberwolves have the home court advantage (9th-least in the league).