Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 4/10/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 10, 2024

Updated Apr 11, 2024 2:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-113/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon measures in the 90th percentile for field goal performance with a superb 57.6% rate this year.
Aaron Gordon has sunk 1.2 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the season.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Nuggets are expected to see an increase in opportunities in this contest from facing the 5th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 9th-best in in the NBA with 11.2 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has tallied 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have shot 40.6% on field goal attempts (3rd-worst in the NBA) against the Timberwolves, making this a difficult matchup.
As a team, the Nuggets have been bad at getting to the foul line: 2nd-worst in the league this year, tallying a mere 19.9 foul shot attempts per game.
This year, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (10th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

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