Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets · Apr 4, 2024

Updated Apr 5, 2024 2:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has attempted 12.6 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.6 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.
Aaron Gordon has made 1.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 more than he's made in all games this season.
Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon comes in at the 84th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 31.6 minutes per game this year.
The matchup against the Clippers is a good one for shot attempts from downtown; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 7th-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.3).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 5th-best in in the league with 11.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

When it comes to offense, the Denver Nuggets's feeble 110.9 points per game as the visting team settles in as the 9th-weakest in the league this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games when playing on the road.
The Nuggets are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays today from being pitted against the most sluggish pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the LA Clippers).
The matchup vs. Los Angeles may be a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a mere 0.5 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the LA Clippers have the home court advantage (2nd-least in the league).
Aaron Gordon will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to lower player production for all stats.