Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 29, 2024

Updated Mar 30, 2024 1:02 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has attempted 12.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.
Aaron Gordon has averaged 30.7 minutes per game at home this year, placing him in the 80th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA with 12.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Aaron Gordon has sunk 3.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's made over the course of the year.
Aaron Gordon will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court tends to improve player performance across the board.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Timberwolves is a difficult one for field goals; the opposition's starting SFs have compiled the 3rd-lowest Field Goal% in the league this year (40.6%).
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.
The Nuggets are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's lackluster 20.0 free throws per game comes in as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (10th-lowest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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