Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/9/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz · Mar 9, 2024

Updated Mar 10, 2024 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year, the other team's starting PFs have tallied 2.4 3-pointers per game (30th-most in the league) vs. the Jazz, creating a favorable matchup.
The Nuggets are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 5th-quickest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Jazz).
The Nuggets rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Compared to last year's 1.7 clip, Aaron Gordon's unsuccessful free throw attempts have tailed off this year to 1.3 per game.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 5.9 free throws per game (28th-highest in the NBA) against the Utah Jazz, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.1 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year.

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