Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 3:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Aaron Gordon rates in the 88th percentile for shooting performance with a an outstanding 56.9% rate this year.
Aaron Gordon has been on the court for 30.4 minutes per game while on his home court this year, placing him in the 79th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should raise opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 7thbest in in the NBA with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.
Aaron Gordon has converted 4.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.8 more than he's made over the course of the season while playing at home.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has tallied 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 0.2 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year at home.
The matchup vs. Phoenix is a difficult one for three-pointers; when the Suns are on the road, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 15th-least treys per game in the NBA this year (0.9).
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games.
The Suns have allowed the most offensive boards per game (12.8) in the league to opposing squads over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's lackluster 20.3 free throws per game measures as the 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.